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Message from discussion In what way are you LEAST frugal?
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Les Cargill  
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 More options Nov 5 2009, 4:52 am
Newsgroups: misc.consumers.frugal-living
From: Les Cargill <lcargil...@comcast.net>
Date: Wed, 04 Nov 2009 22:52:41 -0500
Local: Thurs, Nov 5 2009 4:52 am
Subject: Re: In what way are you LEAST frugal?

Rally2xs wrote:
> On Nov 2, 11:02 pm, Les Cargill <lcargil...@comcast.net> wrote:
>> Rally2xs wrote:
>>> On Nov 1, 8:31 pm, Les Cargill <lcargil...@comcast.net> wrote:
>>>> Rally2xs wrote:
>>>>> On Nov 1, 1:59 pm, Les Cargill <lcargil...@comcast.net> wrote:
>>>>>> Rally2xs wrote:
>>>>>>> On Oct 31, 10:47 pm, "Rod Speed" <rod.speed....@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>> Rally2xs wrote
>>>>>> <snip>
>>>>>>>>> Go to your Borders Bookstore or Barnes and Noble books.
>>>>>>>>> Find the computer section.  Pitiful, isn't it?
>>>>>>>> Because we need fuck all in the way of new PC software
>>>>>>>> and real programmers dont need books from Borders
>>>>>>>> Bookstore or Barnes and Noble to write software.
>>>>>>> Wrong.  I am a programmer, and that is exactly where I buy my books,
>>>>>>> if they have them.  I now need to go to Amazon to get most of them,
>>>>>>> 'cuz Borders doesn't have most of what I'm after.  Only reason I'm an
>>>>>>> American citizen who is a programmer is because the stuff I work with
>>>>>>> has "Secret" stamped all over it, so they CAN'T send it to India.
>>>>>> India is sucking exhaust right now. The Bangalore Bandit game
>>>>>> is not sustainable.
>>>>> Nevertheless, programming in the USA is doing very poorly.  Have to
>>>>> watched the CNN Money website that lists the "best jobs"?  In years
>>>>> past, "programmer" would be right up near the top.  Now it doesn't
>>>>> even appear.  When I got here (DC area) 13 years ago, the Washington
>>>>> Post had a whole section of job ads that was about 10 pages thick, and
>>>>> was all tech jobs.  Now there is no such section.   The programming
>>>>> jobs may or may not be in Bangalore, but the significant diference is
>>>>> that they are not _here._
>>>> I've been in programming for 24 years. The whole field got
>>>> oversold, about ... 13 or so years ago. But there's still
>>>> going to be demand for people. In addition to Bangalore
>>>> Bandits, other factors include increased webification,
>>>> a general sag in telecomms ( largely from rapacious abuse
>>>> by the investment community ) and free software.
>>> Yeah, that free software thing is especially nuts.  Work for free on
>>> some piece of software?  Er... why?  Maybe it's just 'cuz I'm 62, but
>>> that idea just doesn't seem to have any wings.
>> But it's mostly won.

> I don't think so.  There's still nothing like Photoshop.  It's as good
> as it is because people with PHD behind their names figure out new and
> wonderous algorithms to manipulate graphical information with.  Why?
> 'Cuz they get paid to.

Honestly? Filters used to be easier to find, but they're all over
the Web in source-code form. PS just has a serious head of steam
in the marketplace, and for good reason. My PS intensive eldest
evaluated The Gimp and found it wanting. But she said she
could make it work.

> Not happenin' with "free" software.  Any games
> as good as the Quake and Doom and etc. series that are free?

I don't know much about games. For all I know, the games I
liked best were for DOS, and free software people put
together DOSBOX, and I can play Descent again.

But open source doesn't always mean purely free. It is a
mix. I know this much - for realtime embedded stuff, Linux
has won. vxWorks has rolled off dramatically.

> Don't
> think so.   And, I don't have to wonder whether a commercial piece of
> software is any good if it's been around for any time at all.  If it
> has, its only because people have been buying it.

People often also stick with what they know. For me, the value-added
of Windows, hands down, is the Multimedia Extensions, which enable me
to use a computer for pretty serious recording applications.

>>> As a user, I _know_ I hate it - there's nobody to call up for tech
>>> support most of the time, and the documentation so far on some of the
>>> stuff I've _tried_ to use always sucks.
>> I can't count the number of times I've called tech support on
>> one finger. If it don't work, over the side. Next.

> Can't necessarily deep-6 something that doesn't work, if it happens to
> be the tool your organization is using to produce something.

But since you're effectively working by the hour... yes, I
noticed that Those Companies pick the ugliest dog almost invariably.

Oh well...

> Get a
> dud of an open source program, have a problem, and you're up the creek
> unless someone there can fix it.  Shouldn't have to divert valuable
> production time to fix your tools, y'know?

I can't tell you how many times a software vendor has provided me the
opportunity to go around them. Even within their own framework.

Nothing like a four-hour telecon with the lead and an ending like "yeah,
it's broken - dunno how long that'll take". Well, I can't exactly
schedule that, can I? Pot of coffee and four hours, I am good
to go.

>>> There's  a Unix-based UML
>>> drawing program that supposedly creates diagrams from source code.
>>> Not on my computer it doesn't.  It crashes.  Documentation?  Some guy
>>> wrote something about 4 revisions back, that doesn't reflect the state
>>> of the thing now at all, but who ya' gonna complain to?  There's no
>>> one that's paid to give a d***, so that'd likely be futile anyway.
>> Nobody should be a programmer. I used to think it took five years, but
>> I was wrong - it takes ten years, and they won't leave the toolchain
>> under you long enough for that to happen.

> Too bad its such fun, satisfying work, eh?  Oh, well, only the Indians
> and a few others can have that sort of fun any more.

I'm having a ball. :) No, there's a deeper social malaise with all
the instrumentation out there. Started with MacNamara, I think.

>>>> Also WRT to the WaPo - the jobs aren't listed there any more - they
>>>> are online. And increasingly, we're dependent on networking tools
>>>> and knowing good - emphasis *good* - recruiters.
>>> Everything's on Dice, eh?
>> Well..  used to be. Try Indeed now. It'll be different next week.

> Ha, how 'bout that.  Didn't know it was there.  Still doesn't have any
> SW Development jobs in Iraq or Afghanistan.  Missed that one job a
> couple years ago that was offered where I work.  Make a pile of mony
> in return for maybe getting shot at.

It's a fair trade, and if you're flexible enough ( read: single )
it's probably a good experience. I know I'll probably never see
The Pyramids.

>  Finally got a tech writing job
> near Baghdad.  Did get shot at.  Did make a pile.  Will retire earlier
> than I could have otherwise...  Maybe something I did will save a (US,
> or even allied) soldier someday.... hoping...

Here's hoping.

>>>> Now - the *military* will see significant drop in demand, as
>>>> that whole thing slides off into the sunset. In the private
>>>> sector, there's a different problem - employers getting much,
>>>> much dumber.
>>> I wouldn't bet on that.  Soon's somebody starts getting complacent,
>>> we'll get hit again, maybe lose more than 3,000 people to some WMD
>>> thing like Anthrax, and then there'll be a new region of the world
>>> that needs their a**'s kicked, and we'll be developing more Tomahawk
>>> software to do new and wonderous things...
>> Okay then....
>> Look... all the Visa and Mastercharge the Mujahadeen used
>> to finance all that... expired.

>> Sorry.

> Doesn't matter.  They'll find a way, 1000's of Americans will die, our
> side will say in unison, "Told ya' so", and then we'll be off with
> another exeditionary force...

I really don't think so. but this is not the place or time...
<snip>

Programming really is testing. Trust me on this.

>> What is the point? Foam-finger "we're #1" rot? That gains us nothing.

> I'm not sure what it gains us, either, other than if it's referenced
> to gold, I think that due to our dollar devaluation binge, oil will go
> up faster in price.  That would be a bad thing.

We'll see. The problem with that, a detail that even Niall
Ferguson misses, is that the Chinese currency is pegged to
the dollar. They've intentionally kept a weak currency to build
market share. They can control money volume internally - all
aspects of life within the Wall are severely subsized/centrally
planned (still).

if we drop, they drop. If they drop, the balance of trade shifts,
mainly to the US. We have improved velocity of money, it
stiffens the  currency a little. We just have to be ready to actually
deliver.

All this works out to a self-regulating system whose stability will
be felt, so long as people just don't massively defect.

>>>> 2) At some point, China will develop a consumer class, and we'll be able
>>>> to trade, roughly, goods for goods.
>>> Not if we're not producing anything.
>> Well, I'm trying. me and a half dozen other guys.

> We need to be producing something that is valuable andt that millions
> of people want.  Cars come to mind, but we have to do it profitably.
> The Fair Tax would make that possible, but I don't know another way to
> do it.

it's one theory.

>>>> Right now is a solution to the
>>>> problem the British ran against which led to the Boxer
>>>> Rebellion. How this will play out remains to be seen - it's quite
>>>> risky. But the cheapness of Chinese goods has made the quality of life
>>>> during this time of flat wages much more tolerable. In the end, it's
>>>> not really the number that matters, it's what that number will buy, and
>>>> that is actually pretty good, once you get outside of housing. And
>>>> housing is very sharply correcting as we speak...
>>>> 3) The income tax is not optimal, but it's not that far off.  And the
>>>> problem is that "government load" in all directions is much lower here
>>>> than it is in China, India, Europe or Japan.
>>> Government load?
>> See also Kirchoff.

> Kirchoff made a law of electricity that I dimly remember from early
> training.  Oh, I remember how the law works, I just don't remember
> which law was invented by which guy... <G>

:) Delta GDP is like unto V. Gummint load is like R in shunt. We want
I. dR/dt > 0 means dI/dt < 1. The secret is to phase government
such that the various delays hide in reluctances and reactances
of more active components of the economy, using lags to swing
things.

problem is, nobody is smart enough to do this.

>>> And the income tax is and has been a disaster for our economy.   2nd
>>> worst idea this country has ever had, right behind slavery.
>> Yet it saw a spike in GDP pretty much unexplained in human history. In
>> real, inflation adjusted GDP.

> You mean, the cash for clunkers spike?  That one?

Yeah, that one :) That's based on the hope of perception being
reality. Didn't get it past you, did they?

>>>> The bottom line is that we can't have the sort of high growth we've
>>>> seen and a more-extensive social insurance system. Niall Ferguson has
>>>> discussed this at length in "The Ascent of Money" online.
>>> We're not going to need the social insurance system if we can get
>>> everyone a good job, and that doesn't mean $7 / hr at Wal Mart.
>> Don't bother them with details like that.

> I'll bother 'em.

I don't know why, but people are just dead set against it. Makes
no sense. Clinton got 'em over it, but since then.... flatness.

>>>>> Then they will of
>>>>> course stop.  That will be the day of economic armageddon.
>>>> Not with a bang, but with a whimper.
>>> Again, say what?  That day will be instant balanced budget day.
>>> Sounds like a bang to me.
>> There will be no sharp edge. It will be a slow decay. "Not with a bang
>> but with a whimper..."

> There will be  an economic cataclysm on that day.  Trust me.
>>>>>  The USA
>>>>> will most likely spiral down into a Zimbabwe-like economy.
>>>> Not likely. Zimbabwe has nothing anyone else wants. Of course it
>>>> *can* happen, but ... government debt is a funny thing.
>>> I just mean that we're headed for a 3rd world economy - no industry, a
>>> very, very wealthy class, and a very, very poor class, and nobody in
>>> between.
>> That's a pretty poor analysis at best. Most people *are* in between,
>> and they'll be fine. I expect. If I'm wrong. it really
>> doesn't matter...

> They won't be fine, and they're not fine now.  Everyone is making less
> money than they should be making, courtesy of the predatory effects of
> the income tax.

What happens is that the system accounts for the income tax and
everybody fudges the numbers to make it work. It's a highly
adaptive system. They find shadows in the tax
code and it all comes out in the wash.

  That trend will continue.  'Fer instance, Capt.

> Sully, the Miracle on the Hudson pilot, made $100K last year.  All
> that experience, all that capability, and the guy makes $100K, 'cuz
> American airlines are in the toilet, perpetually, due to... at least
> in part... the damned income tax making profitability next to
> impossible in the USA.

No airline has ever earned its cost of capital. Direct quote
from Robert Crandall. Sully has experienced the arrival
of civilization in his specialty.

>  Hell, _I_ made $100K last year, courtesy of
> just 1 month of the 3 of my Iraq tour.  I wrote counter-IED
> documents.  Sully should be making $250K or so for what he does.

but grandma wants to pat $75 on Priceline to go see her grandkids
over Thanksgiving.

I know - we used to put on a suit and tie in the '60s to pick people
up at the airport. It was a big deal. Now it's a commodity.

it sure used to be cooler. Now it's just a pain.

>>>>> At that
>>>>> time, I expect thefair taxwill be passed, and maybe it won't be too
>>>>> late.  But there will be massive economic devastation and a monumental
>>>>> debt to deal with if it gets that far.  Better to pass theFair Tax
>>>>> now, and become the manufacting center of the world again.
>>>> But we don't *want* manufacturing jobs. Trust me on this; I've seen
>>>> it first hand. And I've posted "We Can't Make It Here Anymore" lyrics on
>>>> Usenet before...
>>> Who doesn't want manufacturing?  I sure as H want manufacturing.
>> Nobody wants it. I saw it firsthand. When people get to vote,
>> the factory goes. People build up resentment like scale in
>> a copper water pipe well grounded.

> Where do you live?  Probably not in the midwest.

Sorta. My head's there, anyway. Bit farther South, tho. My
accent is, by analysis, Midwestern, and I Get Garrison Keillor.

> Tell people that
> Ford, Chrysler, etc. is going to build a plant in my hometown, and all
> the people there will be sending them Christmas candy.  People there
> know where their bread is buttered, not like the whiney bunch where I
> live now, that dedicate their lives to keeping anyone from building
> anything new. Even the Kalihari waterpark in Fredericksburg, Va. has
> had a hard way to go to get built, and this is a tourist area, fer
> cryin' out loud.  No, there may not be many new auto plants in
> Virginia, but stick it in Fostoria, Ohio and it will be welcomed with
> open arms.

But you've just described *exactly* the premise of "The Music man".
Think Simpsons. Think "Monorail".

>>> This
>>> is the only way that we can give those people that work with their
>>> hands something prosperous to do.  Without manufacturing, those guys
>>> that I said can wire and plumb a factory 'fore you can turn around
>>> twice don't have anything significant to do, and end up at... Wal
>>> Mart, stocking the shelves or something.
>> Yeah, but do you consciously buy from them? I try, but it's hopeless.

> I buy in Wal Mart - what's so hard about that?

It's poorly organized.

>  But we need to get
> people that can work with their hands into jobs that pay $30 / hr, not
> 7.  That way, we can tax 'em, and they can have good lives. The Fair
> Tax can do that.  I don't know any other way.

I hear ya, buddy. I hear ya. I dunno either. But I hear the sound of a
nail being struck on the head.

--
Les Cargull


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