Another week with only two ranked VS ranked, which always kind of blows. Still, we have some good matchups with conference championship implications in basically every BCS conference.
So, let's start with a non-BCS conference:
Boise State at Louisiana Tech
Of course all the stats are gonna favor Boise State. However, thing's aren't completely hopeless - Louisiana Tech has played a tough schedule, and they remain undefeated at home. They've lost their last two games, both on the road, by a combined three points - so you know they're aching for a win.
They'll have to wait another week. Boise just refuses to simplify things for the BCS. Their offense is decent, and really balanced. If they have a weakness, it's that they're bad at converting 3rd downs - 38% is a little low for such a highly rated offense playing mostly WAC or worse competition. But, it's on the other side of the ball that La-Tech is gonna run into problems - literally. Boise State has a very strong defense, and they make stopping the run priority #1.
Boise State runs away with it in the second half, wins by 3 TD.
UPSET ALERT South Carolina at Arkansas
I have no idea how a really <cough> uneven <cough> Georgia offense scored 41 on South Carolina - take that game out, and they're only allowing ~12 points a game. Even including the Georgia game, Spurrier's team is allowing less than 300 yards a game. Statistically, they have one of the best pass-defenses in division I - and Arkansas has one of the worst, which they've managed to pair with a truly mediocre rush defense.
On the other side, Arkansas loves to throw the ball, and throw it deep. Mallett continues to impress in his first year as a full-time starter (Michigan folk knew he would - guy looked good reliving Henne two years back), and has more pass yards than anyone else in the SEC.
South Carolina just can't find itself on offense - they pass more than run, but they aren't particularly impressive at either.
Both teams have lost two of their last three after promising starts to the season.
I think it's a tossup, but I'm taking Arkansas.
Maryland at NC State
I wanted to pick this game to ask one question. How did 2-6 Maryland beat Clemson? And how did 3-5 NC State beat Pitt? Ok, two questions.
Having said that, NC State isn't completely inept on offense and is merely bad-ish on defense. Maryland's just bad. Across the board bad. "It's mind boggling that we're 2-6" bad.
NC State wins by a TD.
Navy at Notre Dame
Could the midshipmen be the best of the independents this year? Not on paper - the Domers are averaging 100+ yards more on offense than Navy, although Navy has a decent statistical advantage on defense.
It's no news that Navy runs and ND throws - and their defenses match up pretty well with that - Navy is decent against the pass, and Notre Dame is ok against the run.
The thing is, although ND hasn't played the best competition this year, Navy's opponents have been worse. And Fat Bastard really, really needs the win. You've got one mission, Charlie. should you choose to accept it - shutting down the run. If you can manage to do even a half-decent job at it, you'll win.
Dumbass Domers win by 10.
LSU at Alabama
LSU has had a soft schedule to this point, which explains their top-10 ranking - which, really, is one of the softest current rankings. They lost to Florida, and beat a really bad Georgia team by a touchdown. Oh, and the 8 pt win against Washington.
Alabama had a big scare in their last outing, against Tennessee, an opponent that's been gaining confidence week to week this season. I think they regroup, and, with two weeks to prepare, really put it to LSU. LSU has a pretty good defense - Alabama's is better. LSU has no offense - Alabama, if they could figure out their red-zone woes, would be pretty darn impressive offensively.
I just don't see an upset - and both teams are well aware of the stakes. Winner goes to the SECCG, and it's gonna be Alabama... by 21.
Oregon at Stanford
Oregon is playing the best football in the country right now, and I said that *before* they took USC out behind the woodshed last Saturday. They're just obliterating teams.
Stanford has quietly become one of those middle of the conference teams that can jump up and surprise a top-tier team that's napping or looking ahead. They've been particularly impressive at home - to the tune of 4-0. They'd lost two tough games to Arizona and Oregon State before pulling off a decent win in their last one (two weeks ago) against Arizona State. I really like what Harbaugh is doing with this team.
Some might be surprised by the fact that Oregon is, statistically, merely middle-of-the-pack in terms of offensive production - and quite good defensively. OTOH, Stanford rates near the top offensively, and is quite ordinary on defense.
But, Stanford's still a year off from being really dangerous - and I'll take destroying the Trojans, a team that's spent the last 5+ years running rickshaw all over the Pac-10 conference, over an "extra week off to prepare" anytime. Plus, Stanford's weak against the run - the Duck's bread and butter. Oregon rides the wave of momentum to an eighth straight win, by about 21 points.
Wake Forest at Georgia Tech
Wake Forest and Georgia Tech bring their defenses as a matched pair. Tech has allowed 360 yards per game, Wake 360.2. Tech has given up 2004 yards through the air, 1236 in the ground, to Wake's 1967/1265. See what I mean? Neither team has been particularly impressive stopping the run - obviously, advantage Tech.
When I say advantage Tech, what I mean is that they have more rushing yards this season than any other team in Division I, by a large margin. I keep thinking having a run-first run-second run-third offense is gonna hurt 'em at some point - and they keep proving me wrong.
Still, I think this one is close - and I wouldn't be shocked if Wake pulled the upset. But I would be surprised. Tech by 13.
UPSET ALERT Ohio State at Penn State
Penn State is a statistical monster. Ohio State can hang with 'em in most of the defensive categories, but not offensively. Let's be honest, though - PSU has been RUTSing (running up the stats, for those keeping score) pretty weak competition. Ohio State hasn't played a really tough schedule, but it's still better than what The Whiniest Team On Earth has faced.
Say what you want about Tressel OOC, he's still a monster when he plays in the safe confines of the Big Ten. OSU is going to win this game by keeping Penn State's O-line flummoxed - and pressuring the hell out of Clark.
OSU by 3 pts.
Duke at North Carolina
Duke's been streaking. North Carolina impressed everyone last week. And not a bounceyball in sight. It's always fun to see traditionally weak programs do well, as long as it isn't against my team. These two fit the bill. With four games left in the season, both teams need just a single win to become bowl-eligible... so who's gonna be the first to six?
Duke played Virginia Tech tight and North Carolina shocked 'em last week. Duke beat Virginia, North Carolina lost by 13.
Duke's been surprising on defense, and their secondary has been steady - North Carolina's been shockingly good on defense - allowing only 265 yards per game. That's good enough to rank 7th in the country, behind 6 ranked teams - TCU, Florida, Alabama, Texas, Penn State, and Ohio State. That's pretty good company.
The margin is bigger on offense and favors Duke - and they're Red Raideresque numbers - it's all coming through the air. North Carolina's pass defense has been really stout - but, really, it's *had* to be good - their offense is in the bottom-ten in the nation. At least it's balanced - they're equally bad running and passing.
Not only is this game a toss-up, it's gonna be a fun one to watch - keep an eye on the way North Carolina's corners and safeties match up with Duke's receivers... if they can manage tight cover early in the play, I think North Carolina's defensive line will get to take some shots at Duke's QB.
North Carolina by 3.
UPSET ALERT Oregon State at California
Oregon State is a pretty good 5-3 team. Their early losses, to Cincinnati and Arizona, look better in retrospect - their recent loss to USC was a close affair.
Cal has one fewer loss, but they put in a much poorer performance against USC - and they had them in crazy hippieland, while Oregon State played 'em close in the Colosseum. On the other hand, Cal ripped their other common opponent (UCLA), while Oregon State only beat 'em by 7.
Neither team has a particularly impressive defense - and both seem pretty suspect defending the pass. I think Oregon State will find it easier to exploit that flaw, and expect them to win an extremely close game - probably on the last drive.
Oklahoma at Nebraska
I don't really think this one will be close, but it's probably going to be the one my ABC affiliate picks up, and there's certainly historical significance. Which is good, because it's kinda a dud this year. Both teams are playing for pride, I guess. Well, it's worth a little more than that for Nebraska - in spite of a couple surprising losses, Nebraska still has a great shot at the B12CG - even without this win. Beat Oklahoma and they jump into the easiest stretch on their schedule - Kansas State, Kansas, and Colorado to finish the season.
I'd like to see Nebraska keep it close, but I don't think I will. These teams are comparable on defense - but even an uninspired Sooner offense looks better than what the Cornhusker's are putting on the field.
Kyle T. Jones wrote: > Another week with only two ranked VS ranked, which always kind of blows. > Still, we have some good matchups with conference championship > implications in basically every BCS conference.
> So, let's start with a non-BCS conference:
> Boise State at Louisiana Tech
> Of course all the stats are gonna favor Boise State. However, thing's > aren't completely hopeless - Louisiana Tech has played a tough schedule, > and they remain undefeated at home. They've lost their last two games, > both on the road, by a combined three points - so you know they're > aching for a win.
> They'll have to wait another week. Boise just refuses to simplify > things for the BCS. Their offense is decent, and really balanced. If > they have a weakness, it's that they're bad at converting 3rd downs - > 38% is a little low for such a highly rated offense playing mostly WAC > or worse competition. But, it's on the other side of the ball that > La-Tech is gonna run into problems - literally. Boise State has a very > strong defense, and they make stopping the run priority #1.
> Boise State runs away with it in the second half, wins by 3 TD.
> UPSET ALERT South Carolina at Arkansas
> I have no idea how a really <cough> uneven <cough> Georgia offense > scored 41 on South Carolina - take that game out, and they're only > allowing ~12 points a game. Even including the Georgia game, Spurrier's > team is allowing less than 300 yards a game. Statistically, they have > one of the best pass-defenses in division I - and Arkansas has one of > the worst, which they've managed to pair with a truly mediocre rush > defense.
> On the other side, Arkansas loves to throw the ball, and throw it deep. > Mallett continues to impress in his first year as a full-time starter > (Michigan folk knew he would - guy looked good reliving Henne two years > back), and has more pass yards than anyone else in the SEC.
> South Carolina just can't find itself on offense - they pass more than > run, but they aren't particularly impressive at either.
> Both teams have lost two of their last three after promising starts to > the season.
> I think it's a tossup, but I'm taking Arkansas.
> Maryland at NC State
> I wanted to pick this game to ask one question. How did 2-6 Maryland > beat Clemson? And how did 3-5 NC State beat Pitt? Ok, two questions.
> Having said that, NC State isn't completely inept on offense and is > merely bad-ish on defense. Maryland's just bad. Across the board bad. > "It's mind boggling that we're 2-6" bad.
> NC State wins by a TD.
> Navy at Notre Dame
> Could the midshipmen be the best of the independents this year? Not on > paper - the Domers are averaging 100+ yards more on offense than Navy, > although Navy has a decent statistical advantage on defense.
> It's no news that Navy runs and ND throws - and their defenses match up > pretty well with that - Navy is decent against the pass, and Notre Dame > is ok against the run.
> The thing is, although ND hasn't played the best competition this year, > Navy's opponents have been worse. And Fat Bastard really, really needs > the win. You've got one mission, Charlie. should you choose to accept > it - shutting down the run. If you can manage to do even a half-decent > job at it, you'll win.
> Dumbass Domers win by 10.
> LSU at Alabama
> LSU has had a soft schedule to this point, which explains their top-10 > ranking - which, really, is one of the softest current rankings. They > lost to Florida, and beat a really bad Georgia team by a touchdown. Oh, > and the 8 pt win against Washington.
> Alabama had a big scare in their last outing, against Tennessee, an > opponent that's been gaining confidence week to week this season. I > think they regroup, and, with two weeks to prepare, really put it to > LSU. LSU has a pretty good defense - Alabama's is better. LSU has no > offense - Alabama, if they could figure out their red-zone woes, would > be pretty darn impressive offensively.
> I just don't see an upset - and both teams are well aware of the stakes. > Winner goes to the SECCG, and it's gonna be Alabama... by 21.
> Oregon at Stanford
> Oregon is playing the best football in the country right now, and I said > that *before* they took USC out behind the woodshed last Saturday. > They're just obliterating teams.
> Stanford has quietly become one of those middle of the conference teams > that can jump up and surprise a top-tier team that's napping or looking > ahead. They've been particularly impressive at home - to the tune of > 4-0. They'd lost two tough games to Arizona and Oregon State before > pulling off a decent win in their last one (two weeks ago) against > Arizona State. I really like what Harbaugh is doing with this team.
> Some might be surprised by the fact that Oregon is, statistically, > merely middle-of-the-pack in terms of offensive production - and quite > good defensively. OTOH, Stanford rates near the top offensively, and is > quite ordinary on defense.
> But, Stanford's still a year off from being really dangerous - and I'll > take destroying the Trojans, a team that's spent the last 5+ years > running rickshaw all over the Pac-10 conference, over an "extra week off > to prepare" anytime. Plus, Stanford's weak against the run - the Duck's > bread and butter. Oregon rides the wave of momentum to an eighth > straight win, by about 21 points.
> Wake Forest at Georgia Tech
> Wake Forest and Georgia Tech bring their defenses as a matched pair. > Tech has allowed 360 yards per game, Wake 360.2. Tech has given up 2004 > yards through the air, 1236 in the ground, to Wake's 1967/1265. See > what I mean? Neither team has been particularly impressive stopping the > run - obviously, advantage Tech.
> When I say advantage Tech, what I mean is that they have more rushing > yards this season than any other team in Division I, by a large margin. > I keep thinking having a run-first run-second run-third offense is > gonna hurt 'em at some point - and they keep proving me wrong.
> Still, I think this one is close - and I wouldn't be shocked if Wake > pulled the upset. But I would be surprised. Tech by 13.
> UPSET ALERT Ohio State at Penn State
> Penn State is a statistical monster. Ohio State can hang with 'em in > most of the defensive categories, but not offensively. Let's be honest, > though - PSU has been RUTSing (running up the stats, for those keeping > score) pretty weak competition. Ohio State hasn't played a really tough > schedule, but it's still better than what The Whiniest Team On Earth has > faced.
> Say what you want about Tressel OOC, he's still a monster when he plays > in the safe confines of the Big Ten. OSU is going to win this game by > keeping Penn State's O-line flummoxed - and pressuring the hell out of > Clark.
> Duke's been streaking. North Carolina impressed everyone last week. And > not a bounceyball in sight. It's always fun to see traditionally weak > programs do well, as long as it isn't against my team. These two fit > the bill. With four games left in the season, both teams need just a > single win to become bowl-eligible... so who's gonna be the first to six?
> Duke played Virginia Tech tight and North Carolina shocked 'em last > week. Duke beat Virginia, North Carolina lost by 13.
> Duke's been surprising on defense, and their secondary has been steady - > North Carolina's been shockingly good on defense - allowing only 265 > yards per game. That's good enough to rank 7th in the country, behind 6 > ranked teams - TCU, Florida, Alabama, Texas, Penn State, and Ohio State. > That's pretty good company.
> The margin is bigger on offense and favors Duke - and they're Red > Raideresque numbers - it's all coming through the air. North Carolina's > pass defense has been really stout - but, really, it's *had* to be good > - their offense is in the bottom-ten in the nation. At least it's > balanced - they're equally bad running and passing.
> Not only is this game a toss-up, it's gonna be a fun one to watch - keep > an eye on the way North Carolina's corners and safeties match up with > Duke's receivers... if they can manage tight cover early in the play, I > think North Carolina's defensive line will get to take some shots at > Duke's QB.
> North Carolina by 3.
> UPSET ALERT Oregon State at California
> Oregon State is a pretty good 5-3 team. Their early losses, to > Cincinnati and Arizona, look better in retrospect - their recent loss to > USC was a close affair.
> Cal has one fewer loss, but they put in a much poorer performance > against USC - and they had them in crazy hippieland, while Oregon State > played 'em close in the Colosseum. On the other hand, Cal ripped their > other common opponent (UCLA), while Oregon State only beat 'em by 7.
> Neither team has a particularly impressive defense - and both seem > pretty suspect defending the pass. I think Oregon State will find it > easier to exploit that flaw, and expect them to win an extremely close > game - probably on the last drive.
> Oklahoma at Nebraska
> I don't really think this one will be close, but it's probably going to > be the one my ABC affiliate picks up, and there's certainly historical > significance. Which is good, because it's kinda a dud this year. Both > teams are playing for pride, I guess. Well, it's worth a little more > than that for Nebraska - in spite of a couple surprising losses, > Nebraska still has a great shot at the B12CG - even without this win. > Beat Oklahoma and they jump into the easiest stretch on their schedule - > Kansas State, Kansas, and Colorado to
> Another week with only two ranked VS ranked, which always kind of blows. > Still, we have some good matchups with conference championship > implications in basically every BCS conference.
> LSU at Alabama
> LSU has had a soft schedule to this point, which explains their top-10 > ranking - which, really, is one of the softest current rankings. They > lost to Florida, and beat a really bad Georgia team by a touchdown. Oh, > and the 8 pt win against Washington.
> Alabama had a big scare in their last outing, against Tennessee, an > opponent that's been gaining confidence week to week this season. I > think they regroup, and, with two weeks to prepare, really put it to > LSU. LSU has a pretty good defense - Alabama's is better. LSU has no > offense - Alabama, if they could figure out their red-zone woes, would > be pretty darn impressive offensively.
> I just don't see an upset - and both teams are well aware of the stakes. > Winner goes to the SECCG, and it's gonna be Alabama... by 21.
Does an LSU loss to Bama take some of the lustre off of Florida's earlier win in Baton Rouge, enough to enable Texas to jump the Gators into the #1 spot?
> Another week with only two ranked VS ranked, which always kind of blows. > Still, we have some good matchups with conference championship > implications in basically every BCS conference.
> So, let's start with a non-BCS conference:
> Boise State at Louisiana Tech
> Of course all the stats are gonna favor Boise State. However, thing's > aren't completely hopeless - Louisiana Tech has played a tough schedule, > and they remain undefeated at home. They've lost their last two games, > both on the road, by a combined three points - so you know they're > aching for a win.
> They'll have to wait another week. Boise just refuses to simplify > things for the BCS. Their offense is decent, and really balanced. If > they have a weakness, it's that they're bad at converting 3rd downs - > 38% is a little low for such a highly rated offense playing mostly WAC > or worse competition. But, it's on the other side of the ball that > La-Tech is gonna run into problems - literally. Boise State has a very > strong defense, and they make stopping the run priority #1.
> Boise State runs away with it in the second half, wins by 3 TD.
> UPSET ALERT South Carolina at Arkansas
> I have no idea how a really <cough> uneven <cough> Georgia offense > scored 41 on South Carolina - take that game out, and they're only > allowing ~12 points a game. Even including the Georgia game, Spurrier's > team is allowing less than 300 yards a game. Statistically, they have > one of the best pass-defenses in division I - and Arkansas has one of > the worst, which they've managed to pair with a truly mediocre rush defense.
> On the other side, Arkansas loves to throw the ball, and throw it deep. > Mallett continues to impress in his first year as a full-time starter > (Michigan folk knew he would - guy looked good reliving Henne two years > back), and has more pass yards than anyone else in the SEC.
> South Carolina just can't find itself on offense - they pass more than > run, but they aren't particularly impressive at either.
> Both teams have lost two of their last three after promising starts to > the season.
> I think it's a tossup, but I'm taking Arkansas.
> Maryland at NC State
> I wanted to pick this game to ask one question. How did 2-6 Maryland > beat Clemson? And how did 3-5 NC State beat Pitt? Ok, two questions.
> Having said that, NC State isn't completely inept on offense and is > merely bad-ish on defense. Maryland's just bad. Across the board bad. > "It's mind boggling that we're 2-6" bad.
> NC State wins by a TD.
> Navy at Notre Dame
> Could the midshipmen be the best of the independents this year? Not on > paper - the Domers are averaging 100+ yards more on offense than Navy, > although Navy has a decent statistical advantage on defense.
> It's no news that Navy runs and ND throws - and their defenses match up > pretty well with that - Navy is decent against the pass, and Notre Dame > is ok against the run.
> The thing is, although ND hasn't played the best competition this year, > Navy's opponents have been worse. And Fat Bastard really, really needs > the win. You've got one mission, Charlie. should you choose to accept > it - shutting down the run. If you can manage to do even a half-decent > job at it, you'll win.
> Dumbass Domers win by 10.
> LSU at Alabama
> LSU has had a soft schedule to this point, which explains their top-10 > ranking - which, really, is one of the softest current rankings. They > lost to Florida, and beat a really bad Georgia team by a touchdown. Oh, > and the 8 pt win against Washington.
> Alabama had a big scare in their last outing, against Tennessee, an > opponent that's been gaining confidence week to week this season. I > think they regroup, and, with two weeks to prepare, really put it to > LSU. LSU has a pretty good defense - Alabama's is better. LSU has no > offense - Alabama, if they could figure out their red-zone woes, would > be pretty darn impressive offensively.
> I just don't see an upset - and both teams are well aware of the stakes. > Winner goes to the SECCG, and it's gonna be Alabama... by 21.
> Oregon at Stanford
> Oregon is playing the best football in the country right now, and I said > that *before* they took USC out behind the woodshed last Saturday. > They're just obliterating teams.
> Stanford has quietly become one of those middle of the conference teams > that can jump up and surprise a top-tier team that's napping or looking > ahead. They've been particularly impressive at home - to the tune of > 4-0. They'd lost two tough games to Arizona and Oregon State before > pulling off a decent win in their last one (two weeks ago) against > Arizona State. I really like what Harbaugh is doing with this team.
> Some might be surprised by the fact that Oregon is, statistically, > merely middle-of-the-pack in terms of offensive production - and quite > good defensively. OTOH, Stanford rates near the top offensively, and is > quite ordinary on defense.
> But, Stanford's still a year off from being really dangerous - and I'll > take destroying the Trojans, a team that's spent the last 5+ years > running rickshaw all over the Pac-10 conference, over an "extra week off > to prepare" anytime. Plus, Stanford's weak against the run - the Duck's > bread and butter. Oregon rides the wave of momentum to an eighth > straight win, by about 21 points.
> Wake Forest at Georgia Tech
> Wake Forest and Georgia Tech bring their defenses as a matched pair. > Tech has allowed 360 yards per game, Wake 360.2. Tech has given up 2004 > yards through the air, 1236 in the ground, to Wake's 1967/1265. See > what I mean? Neither team has been particularly impressive stopping the > run - obviously, advantage Tech.
> When I say advantage Tech, what I mean is that they have more rushing > yards this season than any other team in Division I, by a large margin. > I keep thinking having a run-first run-second run-third offense is > gonna hurt 'em at some point - and they keep proving me wrong.
> Still, I think this one is close - and I wouldn't be shocked if Wake > pulled the upset. But I would be surprised. Tech by 13.
> UPSET ALERT Ohio State at Penn State
> Penn State is a statistical monster. Ohio State can hang with 'em in > most of the defensive categories, but not offensively. Let's be honest, > though - PSU has been RUTSing (running up the stats, for those keeping > score) pretty weak competition. Ohio State hasn't played a really tough > schedule, but it's still better than what The Whiniest Team On Earth has > faced.
> Say what you want about Tressel OOC, he's still a monster when he plays > in the safe confines of the Big Ten. OSU is going to win this game by > keeping Penn State's O-line flummoxed - and pressuring the hell out of > Clark.
> OSU by 3 pts.
> Duke at North Carolina
> Duke's been streaking. North Carolina impressed everyone last week. > And not a bounceyball in sight. It's always fun to see traditionally > weak programs do well, as long as it isn't against my team. These two > fit the bill. With four games left in the season, both teams need just > a single win to become bowl-eligible... so who's gonna be the first to six?
> Duke played Virginia Tech tight and North Carolina shocked 'em last > week. Duke beat Virginia, North Carolina lost by 13.
> Duke's been surprising on defense, and their secondary has been steady - > North Carolina's been shockingly good on defense - allowing only 265 > yards per game. That's good enough to rank 7th in the country, behind 6 > ranked teams - TCU, Florida, Alabama, Texas, Penn State, and Ohio State. > That's pretty good company.
> The margin is bigger on offense and favors Duke - and they're Red > Raideresque numbers - it's all coming through the air. North Carolina's > pass defense has been really stout - but, really, it's *had* to be good > - their offense is in the bottom-ten in the nation. At least it's > balanced - they're equally bad running and passing.
> Not only is this game a toss-up, it's gonna be a fun one to watch - keep > an eye on the way North Carolina's corners and safeties match up with > Duke's receivers... if they can manage tight cover early in the play, I > think North Carolina's defensive line will get to take some shots at > Duke's QB.
> North Carolina by 3.
> UPSET ALERT Oregon State at California
> Oregon State is a pretty good 5-3 team. Their early losses, to > Cincinnati and Arizona, look better in retrospect - their recent loss to > USC was a close affair.
> Cal has one fewer loss, but they put in a much poorer performance > against USC - and they had them in crazy hippieland, while Oregon State > played 'em close in the Colosseum. On the other hand, Cal ripped their > other common opponent (UCLA), while Oregon State only beat 'em by 7.
> Neither team has a particularly impressive defense - and both seem > pretty suspect defending the pass. I think Oregon State will find it > easier to exploit that flaw, and expect them to win an extremely close > game - probably on the last drive.
> Oklahoma at Nebraska
> I don't really think this one will be close, but it's probably going to > be the one my ABC affiliate picks up, and there's certainly historical > significance. Which is good, because it's kinda a dud this year. Both > teams are playing for pride, I guess. Well, it's worth a little more > than that for Nebraska - in spite of a couple surprising losses, > Nebraska still has a great shot at the B12CG - even without this win. > Beat Oklahoma and they jump into the easiest stretch on their schedule - > Kansas State, Kansas, and Colorado to finish the season.
> I'd like to see Nebraska keep it close, but I don't think I will. These > teams are
Kyle T. Jones wrote: > Another week with only two ranked VS ranked, which always kind of blows. > Still, we have some good matchups with conference championship > implications in basically every BCS conference.
> So, let's start with a non-BCS conference:
> Boise State at Louisiana Tech
> Of course all the stats are gonna favor Boise State. However, thing's > aren't completely hopeless - Louisiana Tech has played a tough schedule, > and they remain undefeated at home. They've lost their last two games, > both on the road, by a combined three points - so you know they're > aching for a win.
> They'll have to wait another week. Boise just refuses to simplify > things for the BCS. Their offense is decent, and really balanced. If > they have a weakness, it's that they're bad at converting 3rd downs - > 38% is a little low for such a highly rated offense playing mostly WAC > or worse competition. But, it's on the other side of the ball that > La-Tech is gonna run into problems - literally. Boise State has a very > strong defense, and they make stopping the run priority #1.
> Boise State runs away with it in the second half, wins by 3 TD.
> I have no idea how a really <cough> uneven <cough> Georgia offense > scored 41 on South Carolina - take that game out, and they're only > allowing ~12 points a game. Even including the Georgia game, Spurrier's > team is allowing less than 300 yards a game. Statistically, they have > one of the best pass-defenses in division I - and Arkansas has one of > the worst, which they've managed to pair with a truly mediocre rush > defense.
> On the other side, Arkansas loves to throw the ball, and throw it deep. > Mallett continues to impress in his first year as a full-time starter > (Michigan folk knew he would - guy looked good reliving Henne two years > back), and has more pass yards than anyone else in the SEC.
> South Carolina just can't find itself on offense - they pass more than > run, but they aren't particularly impressive at either.
> Both teams have lost two of their last three after promising starts to > the season.
> I think it's a tossup, but I'm taking Arkansas.
Rite.
> Maryland at NC State
> I wanted to pick this game to ask one question. How did 2-6 Maryland > beat Clemson? And how did 3-5 NC State beat Pitt? Ok, two questions.
> Having said that, NC State isn't completely inept on offense and is > merely bad-ish on defense. Maryland's just bad. Across the board bad. > "It's mind boggling that we're 2-6" bad.
> Could the midshipmen be the best of the independents this year? Not on > paper - the Domers are averaging 100+ yards more on offense than Navy, > although Navy has a decent statistical advantage on defense.
> It's no news that Navy runs and ND throws - and their defenses match up > pretty well with that - Navy is decent against the pass, and Notre Dame > is ok against the run.
> The thing is, although ND hasn't played the best competition this year, > Navy's opponents have been worse. And Fat Bastard really, really needs > the win. You've got one mission, Charlie. should you choose to accept > it - shutting down the run. If you can manage to do even a half-decent > job at it, you'll win.
> LSU has had a soft schedule to this point, which explains their top-10 > ranking - which, really, is one of the softest current rankings. They > lost to Florida, and beat a really bad Georgia team by a touchdown. Oh, > and the 8 pt win against Washington.
> Alabama had a big scare in their last outing, against Tennessee, an > opponent that's been gaining confidence week to week this season. I > think they regroup, and, with two weeks to prepare, really put it to > LSU. LSU has a pretty good defense - Alabama's is better. LSU has no > offense - Alabama, if they could figure out their red-zone woes, would > be pretty darn impressive offensively.
> I just don't see an upset - and both teams are well aware of the stakes. > Winner goes to the SECCG, and it's gonna be Alabama... by 21.
> Oregon is playing the best football in the country right now, and I said > that *before* they took USC out behind the woodshed last Saturday. > They're just obliterating teams.
> Stanford has quietly become one of those middle of the conference teams > that can jump up and surprise a top-tier team that's napping or looking > ahead. They've been particularly impressive at home - to the tune of > 4-0. They'd lost two tough games to Arizona and Oregon State before > pulling off a decent win in their last one (two weeks ago) against > Arizona State. I really like what Harbaugh is doing with this team.
> Some might be surprised by the fact that Oregon is, statistically, > merely middle-of-the-pack in terms of offensive production - and quite > good defensively. OTOH, Stanford rates near the top offensively, and is > quite ordinary on defense.
> But, Stanford's still a year off from being really dangerous - and I'll > take destroying the Trojans, a team that's spent the last 5+ years > running rickshaw all over the Pac-10 conference, over an "extra week off > to prepare" anytime. Plus, Stanford's weak against the run - the Duck's > bread and butter. Oregon rides the wave of momentum to an eighth > straight win, by about 21 points.
Rong. For the second time in three years, Stanford shocks the favorite in the Pac-10. Damn, Harbaugh - that's some wicked coaching, dewd.
> Wake Forest and Georgia Tech bring their defenses as a matched pair. > Tech has allowed 360 yards per game, Wake 360.2. Tech has given up 2004 > yards through the air, 1236 in the ground, to Wake's 1967/1265. See > what I mean? Neither team has been particularly impressive stopping the > run - obviously, advantage Tech.
> When I say advantage Tech, what I mean is that they have more rushing > yards this season than any other team in Division I, by a large margin. > I keep thinking having a run-first run-second run-third offense is > gonna hurt 'em at some point - and they keep proving me wrong.
> Still, I think this one is close - and I wouldn't be shocked if Wake > pulled the upset. But I would be surprised. Tech by 13.
> Penn State is a statistical monster. Ohio State can hang with 'em in > most of the defensive categories, but not offensively. Let's be honest, > though - PSU has been RUTSing (running up the stats, for those keeping > score) pretty weak competition. Ohio State hasn't played a really tough > schedule, but it's still better than what The Whiniest Team On Earth has > faced.
> Say what you want about Tressel OOC, he's still a monster when he plays > in the safe confines of the Big Ten. OSU is going to win this game by > keeping Penn State's O-line flummoxed - and pressuring the hell out of > Clark.
> Duke's been streaking. North Carolina impressed everyone last week. And > not a bounceyball in sight. It's always fun to see traditionally weak > programs do well, as long as it isn't against my team. These two fit > the bill. With four games left in the season, both teams need just a > single win to become bowl-eligible... so who's gonna be the first to six?
> Duke played Virginia Tech tight and North Carolina shocked 'em last > week. Duke beat Virginia, North Carolina lost by 13.
> Duke's been surprising on defense, and their secondary has been steady - > North Carolina's been shockingly good on defense - allowing only 265 > yards per game. That's good enough to rank 7th in the country, behind 6 > ranked teams - TCU, Florida, Alabama, Texas, Penn State, and Ohio State. > That's pretty good company.
> The margin is bigger on offense and favors Duke - and they're Red > Raideresque numbers - it's all coming through the air. North Carolina's > pass defense has been really stout - but, really, it's *had* to be good > - their offense is in the bottom-ten in the nation. At least it's > balanced - they're equally bad running and passing.
> Not only is this game a toss-up, it's gonna be a fun one to watch - keep > an eye on the way North Carolina's corners and safeties match up with > Duke's receivers... if they can manage tight cover early in the play, I > think North Carolina's defensive line will get to take some shots at > Duke's QB.
> Oregon State is a pretty good 5-3 team. Their early losses, to > Cincinnati and Arizona, look better in retrospect - their recent loss to > USC was a close affair.
> Cal has one fewer loss, but they put in a much poorer performance > against USC - and they had them in crazy hippieland, while Oregon State > played 'em close in the Colosseum. On the other hand, Cal ripped their > other common opponent (UCLA), while Oregon State only beat 'em by 7.
> Neither team has a particularly impressive defense - and both seem > pretty suspect defending the pass. I think Oregon State will find it > easier to exploit that flaw, and expect them to win an extremely close > game - probably on the last drive.
> I don't really think this one will be close, but it's probably going to > be the one my ABC affiliate picks up, and there's certainly historical > significance. Which is good, because it's kinda a dud this year.
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