For the third straight week, we have only two ranked-vs-ranked games... one on Friday night. I like me some Friday Night College Football. The season as a whole has turned out to be fairly blah, but there are always good games on, if you really like The Greatest Sport on Earth. Here are a couple I'll be watching -
West Virginia at Cincinnati
I'm not sure that all the complaining about Cincinnati's "easy" schedule is legitimate. They've already beaten #26 Oregon State in Oregon (it's always an accomplishment to beat an Oregon school in Oregon) and #23 South Florida. They finish the season playing two of their last three games against teams currently ranked #27 and #12 - that's four games against teams currently ranked in the top 27 of the AP, and three teams currently listed in the top-25 of the BCS.
So, not so shabby. The big news this week is that Pike returns as starting QB for the Bearcats. For the season, Cincinnati is 3rd in the nation in yards/game on offense (balanced with a slight lean toward passing) and are a top-30 team in total defense (although they're a bit suspect against the run).
On the other side, West Virginia is a decent 7-2 team, but it lacks wins against quality opponents. Both teams played their best common opponent, South Florida, in Florida - Cincy won convincingly, West Virginia lost convincingly. Statistically, West Virginia and Cincy are close defensively, but Cincy is way ahead of them on offense. On the other hand, West Virginia knows how to run the ball... and I think that might keep 'em in this game.
In the end, Cincy wins a close one by about 5-7 pts.
Georgia Tech at Duke
Duke's not a bad team, but their offense seems to be fading down the stretch. The problem is that their rush defense is mediocre at best, allowing 139.2 YPG. Georgia Tech is going to eat that up with the top-rated run in college football, to the tune of a 21 point win.
I don't expect Duke to win any of their last three games, to be honest - sorry Duke - No Bowl For You.
UPSET ALERT - Tennessee at Ole Miss
This should be an exciting game - a team that was supposed to be decent and isn't against a team that was supposed to be horrid... and isn't. It's a remarkable comment on the modern flux of college football that Ole Miss is the first and Tennessee is the second.
Since the close game with Florida, Tennessee has looked good - they've lost two (Auburn and Alabama) by an average of 3 points. Their wins have been... convincing. Ole Miss lost to both those teams badly, and is still looking for a marque win to hang their hat on this season - I'm not counting Arkansas, although it could be all they get.
Offensively, the teams are very similar - balanced attacks that grab up around 400 yards per game. One stat that jumps out at me is that Tennessee is willing to take more chances (they've gone for 4th down 12 times this season) and they're much better at converting those crucial game-changers.
Defensively the teams are also similar - again, one thing that jumps out at me is that Tennessee has been more successful at stopping the run.
Look, this is a toss-up in a lot of ways, and Mississippi is at home - but I'm gonna bet on Tennessee's momentum and assume the three Tennessee players who were recently arrested for armed robbery weren't starters.
Tennessee actually makes a game-ending field goal this week and takes it by 2.
Florida at South Carolina
I know what you're thinking - here he goes again with the wishful thinking. And yes - picking upsets against Florida hasn't gone well for me (although I was pretty damn close with Arkansas, an upset I picked weeks in advance and harped on throughout).
So, can South Carolina at home beat Florida? Sure... if that 2007 Stanford team could beat USC, anything is possible.
But I doubt it, and here's why - Florida has the best defense in the SEC, and South Carolina sucks at putting points on the board - although they're statistically middle-of-the-SEC-pack in total yards generated, they're dead last in points scored. Teams that pull off upsets finish drives, and S. Carolina finds that near unpossible...
Of course, South Carolina *is* undefeated at home. Ha, just had to leave that door open a bit. Florida wins big, impresses the easily impressionable. (call it 28 pts).
Idaho at Boise State
Everyone is hoping Idaho can give Boise a run. They can't - and especially as their starting QB is out for the game. Having the best season in years is a relative thing, and for Idaho it basically means hitting bowl eligibility. Both teams are good on offense - statistically in the top-25 in the country. However, only one of them plays defense.
Idaho has lost every non-puff they've played this year, and things aren't going to change Saturday. Besides, Boise's field camouflaging technique gives them a decided schematic advantage - maybe the coach of the Dumbass Domers should give 'em a call...
Boise puts this one away in the third quarter and wins going away.
UPSET ALERT?? - Iowa at Ohio State
Winner goes to the Rose Bowl. Iowa lost Stanzi - enough said... although I'm always wondering - how can a guy who throws an interception every time I flip to the game be *this* important to a team? I don't know, but apparently he can. Iowa plays good defense - but Ohio State is better. Ohio State's offense is nothing to write home about - but it was better than Iowa's, even *before* they lost Stanzi. And they're playing in the Stadium They Couldn't Complete.
Hey, I'm not shocking anyone when I point out that all indications are the Big Ten is only strong this year if strength is a direct measure of parity within the conference. There have certainly been a bunch of exciting games this year, but... well, it's sickening to me that the horrible wannabes from down south are gonna win their 72nd straight conference title in spite of all that parity and an offense that just can't figure itself out. But that's how things are shaping up. Now go out and prove me wrong, Iowa.
Ohio State by 7.
UPSET ALERT - Miami at North Carolina
Miami's had a pretty good season so far - an overtime loss to Clemson and an @#$-whoopin' by Virginia Tech are the only flaws. At first glance, this one seems like a no-brainer. But wait a second - North Carolina has been having a pretty good season themselves, and two weeks ago they beat the same Virginia Tech team that whooped Miami like the hypothetical red-headed stepchild.
God I hate gingers ($1 to Cartman).
This should be an interesting game because we're looking at a fairly high-power Miami offense (heavily favors the pass) against the 5th best defense in the country - yep, North Carolina has the 5th best defense in the country.
That's worth repeating again. North Carolina has the 5th best defense in the country. In football.
In fact, if you look only at BCS schools, North Carolina is the 2nd best defense (overall and pass defense) nationwide. #1 is Florida.
This is a tough one to call - Miami has looked really good since the loss to VT, but North Carolina has home field advantage and is coming off two good wins, including beating VT. Close calls go to the underdog - I'm assuming that's North Carolina, although I haven't looked. This game comes down to the mismatches - Miami is pass-heavy, North Carolina is outstanding against the pass. North Carolina's only decent offensive stat is rush yardage, and Miami is suspect against the run.
North Carolina scores half their points on defense, wins 24-21.
Stanford at USC
The robber-barons can win this game. They probably won't, but they can. The big problem with calling this upset is that Stanford is 6-3 - but all three losses are on the road. If they had USC at home, I think it'd go the other way. Let's take a look at how the units match up -
USC's defense is in the top-third of the nation, and it's balanced - they're equally good against the run and the pass. Stanford's defense is in the bottom-third of the nation, and it's balanced - they're equally bad against the run and the pass.
On the other side of things, Stanford really is impressive on offense - top-25, statistically, averaging about 440 yards per game, and again - balance. USC is a bit worse, with just over 400 yards per game - and, you got it... balance. These teams that can do everything pretty well tend to end up with winning records.
I think Stanford would win this game if it weren't in the Colosseum, but it is - USC wins a really fun and close game. I'm hoping they'll have this one on one of the Fox regional channels. Don't worry, Stanford - you have two decentish opponents at home to close out the season, and I think you're a lock to go 7-5, maybe even 8-4 before the bowl. Go Fighting Harbaughs. Also, the "we're the Cardinal, like the color, not the Cardinals, like the bird" thing is the suck - just ask the Cincinnati Red.
USC by 4.
Notre Dame at Pitt
Notre Dame is a 3-loss team that's gotten worse throughout the season. Pitt is a 1-loss team that's gotten better week to week. Navy beat the Domers last week and lost to Pitt early in the season.
This game is going to be about Pitt running the ball well and controlling time of possession. It won't be a blowout, but only because the Dumbass Domers will get their trademarked Irrelevant Touchdown as Time Expires.
Pitt by 5.
UPSET ALERT - Texas Tech at Oklahoma State
I can't go into the details or the matchups. But Tech wins this game easily - to the tune of 21 or so points. Mark it down.
On Nov 12, 5:07 pm, "Kyle T. Jones" <KBf...@realdomain.net> wrote:
> For the third straight week, we have only two ranked-vs-ranked games... > one on Friday night. I like me some Friday Night College Football. The > season as a whole has turned out to be fairly blah, but there are always > good games on, if you really like The Greatest Sport on Earth. Here are > a couple I'll be watching -
> West Virginia at Cincinnati
> I'm not sure that all the complaining about Cincinnati's "easy" schedule > is legitimate. They've already beaten #26 Oregon State in Oregon (it's > always an accomplishment to beat an Oregon school in Oregon) and #23 > South Florida.
and Fresno State, who I believe deserves more credit. Fresno's only losses this year are by 8 at Cincinnati, by 3 at Wisconsin, and the loss to Boise State. The predictive computer programs actually really like them (being a borderline top 25 team by this method).
> Winner goes to the Rose Bowl. Iowa lost Stanzi - enough said... > although I'm always wondering - how can a guy who throws an interception > every time I flip to the game be *this* important to a team? I don't > know, but apparently he can. Iowa plays good defense - but Ohio State > is better. Ohio State's offense is nothing to write home about - but it > was better than Iowa's, even *before* they lost Stanzi. And they're > playing in the Stadium They Couldn't Complete.
> Hey, I'm not shocking anyone when I point out that all indications are > the Big Ten is only strong this year if strength is a direct measure of > parity within the conference. There have certainly been a bunch of > exciting games this year, but... well, it's sickening to me that the > horrible wannabes from down south are gonna win their 72nd straight > conference title in spite of all that parity and an offense that just > can't figure itself out. But that's how things are shaping up. Now go > out and prove me wrong, Iowa.
> Ohio State by 7.
By 7, you mimed?!
TP and the rest of the Nutmeats are going to hang 70 on my Hawkeyes.
Seriously though, it's not so much that Stanzi is that good - it's more that Vandenberg has ZERO experience and (at least based on last week) is completely unprepared for Big Ten play. In fact many of the Hawkeye faithful are already saying that Weinke (String #3) better be ready. That's like wishing for Nancy Pelosi if Obama and Biden keel over!
The thing is that Stanzi was never a threat for the Davey O'Brien - or even all-Big Ten. But he is one of the toughest, thickest skinned kids I have seen - and believe me, if you play for Iowa your skin better be plenty thick. Much more importantly, he's been through the wars and knows what it takes. You can have Moeaki or Robinson or Sandeman or Richardson go off and replace them with lesser lights and still win. But not Stanzi, when we simply don't have the talent level of tOSU or Michigan or Pepsi State.
All that said, I will NOT be shocked if Captain Kirk and Parker and O'Keefe come up with something to actually pull off the upset.
I saw a projection (Sporting News?) where they pick Iowa to play Florida in the Orange Bowl. Lord love a duck - there's nothing I'd like more...
<snip>
> Notre Dame at Pitt
> Notre Dame is a 3-loss team that's gotten worse throughout the season. > Pitt is a 1-loss team that's gotten better week to week. Navy beat the > Domers last week and lost to Pitt early in the season.
> This game is going to be about Pitt running the ball well and > controlling time of possession. It won't be a blowout, but only because > the Dumbass Domers will get their trademarked Irrelevant Touchdown as > Time Expires.
> Pitt by 5.
I will be at Heinz Filled tomorrow night for this game. I think Pitt can pull it off (shit, I sure as hell *hope* they can pull it off), but the talent level on Notre Dame is so damn high, that it's hard to be confident.
They had this report in the local fishwrap that compared Weis and Da 'stache (they both started at their respective jobs at the same time). Surprisingly, their overall W-L records aren't that different. But when you compare the levels of talents on both teams, Weis should have won 483 times as many games.
I'm not looking forward to all those green-clad assholes who will be there at the stadium tomorrow...
Zaphod Beeblebrox wrote: > Disculpa Senora Kyle T. Jones, pero did you really mime the following on > 11/12/2009 5:07 PM???
> <snip>
>> UPSET ALERT?? - Iowa at Ohio State
>> Winner goes to the Rose Bowl. Iowa lost Stanzi - enough said... >> although I'm always wondering - how can a guy who throws an >> interception every time I flip to the game be *this* important to a >> team? I don't know, but apparently he can. Iowa plays good defense - >> but Ohio State is better. Ohio State's offense is nothing to write >> home about - but it was better than Iowa's, even *before* they lost >> Stanzi. And they're playing in the Stadium They Couldn't Complete.
>> Hey, I'm not shocking anyone when I point out that all indications are >> the Big Ten is only strong this year if strength is a direct measure >> of parity within the conference. There have certainly been a bunch of >> exciting games this year, but... well, it's sickening to me that the >> horrible wannabes from down south are gonna win their 72nd straight >> conference title in spite of all that parity and an offense that just >> can't figure itself out. But that's how things are shaping up. Now >> go out and prove me wrong, Iowa.
>> Ohio State by 7.
> By 7, you mimed?!
> TP and the rest of the Nutmeats are going to hang 70 on my Hawkeyes.
> Seriously though, it's not so much that Stanzi is that good - it's more > that Vandenberg has ZERO experience and (at least based on last week) is > completely unprepared for Big Ten play. In fact many of the Hawkeye > faithful are already saying that Weinke (String #3) better be ready. > That's like wishing for Nancy Pelosi if Obama and Biden keel over!
> The thing is that Stanzi was never a threat for the Davey O'Brien - or > even all-Big Ten. But he is one of the toughest, thickest skinned kids > I have seen - and believe me, if you play for Iowa your skin better be > plenty thick. Much more importantly, he's been through the wars and > knows what it takes. You can have Moeaki or Robinson or Sandeman or > Richardson go off and replace them with lesser lights and still win. But > not Stanzi, when we simply don't have the talent level of tOSU or > Michigan or Pepsi State.
> All that said, I will NOT be shocked if Captain Kirk and Parker and > O'Keefe come up with something to actually pull off the upset.
> I saw a projection (Sporting News?) where they pick Iowa to play Florida > in the Orange Bowl. Lord love a duck - there's nothing I'd like more...
> <snip>
>> Notre Dame at Pitt
>> Notre Dame is a 3-loss team that's gotten worse throughout the season. >> Pitt is a 1-loss team that's gotten better week to week. Navy beat >> the Domers last week and lost to Pitt early in the season.
>> This game is going to be about Pitt running the ball well and >> controlling time of possession. It won't be a blowout, but only >> because the Dumbass Domers will get their trademarked Irrelevant >> Touchdown as Time Expires.
>> Pitt by 5.
> I will be at Heinz Filled tomorrow night for this game.
dam, you die hard you, I've went tailgating early before, but not 24 hrs early
> can pull it off (shit, I sure as hell *hope* they can pull it off), but > the talent level on Notre Dame is so damn high, that it's hard to be > confident.
> They had this report in the local fishwrap that compared Weis and Da > 'stache (they both started at their respective jobs at the same time). > Surprisingly, their overall W-L records aren't that different. But when > you compare the levels of talents on both teams, Weis should have won > 483 times as many games.
> I'm not looking forward to all those green-clad assholes who will be > there at the stadium tomorrow...
> Disculpa Senora Kyle T. Jones, pero did you really mime the following > on 11/12/2009 5:07 PM???
> <snip>
>> UPSET ALERT?? - Iowa at Ohio State
>> Winner goes to the Rose Bowl. Iowa lost Stanzi - enough said... >> although I'm always wondering - how can a guy who throws an >> interception every time I flip to the game be *this* important to a >> team? I don't know, but apparently he can. Iowa plays good >> defense - but Ohio State is better. Ohio State's offense is nothing >> to write home about - but it was better than Iowa's, even *before* >> they lost Stanzi. And they're playing in the Stadium They Couldn't >> Complete.
>> Hey, I'm not shocking anyone when I point out that all indications >> are the Big Ten is only strong this year if strength is a direct >> measure of parity within the conference. There have certainly been a >> bunch of exciting games this year, but... well, it's sickening to me >> that the horrible wannabes from down south are gonna win their 72nd >> straight conference title in spite of all that parity and an offense >> that just can't figure itself out. But that's how things are shaping >> up. Now go out and prove me wrong, Iowa.
>> Ohio State by 7.
> By 7, you mimed?!
> TP and the rest of the Nutmeats are going to hang 70 on my Hawkeyes.
> Seriously though, it's not so much that Stanzi is that good - it's > more that Vandenberg has ZERO experience and (at least based on last > week) is completely unprepared for Big Ten play. In fact many of the > Hawkeye faithful are already saying that Weinke (String #3) better be > ready. That's like wishing for Nancy Pelosi if Obama and Biden keel > over!
> The thing is that Stanzi was never a threat for the Davey O'Brien - or > even all-Big Ten. But he is one of the toughest, thickest skinned > kids I have seen - and believe me, if you play for Iowa your skin > better be plenty thick. Much more importantly, he's been through the > wars and knows what it takes. You can have Moeaki or Robinson or > Sandeman or Richardson go off and replace them with lesser lights and > still win. But not Stanzi, when we simply don't have the talent level > of tOSU or Michigan or Pepsi State.
> All that said, I will NOT be shocked if Captain Kirk and Parker and > O'Keefe come up with something to actually pull off the upset.
> I saw a projection (Sporting News?) where they pick Iowa to play > Florida in the Orange Bowl. Lord love a duck - there's nothing I'd > like more...
> <snip>
>> Notre Dame at Pitt
>> Notre Dame is a 3-loss team that's gotten worse throughout the >> season. Pitt is a 1-loss team that's gotten better week to week. >> Navy beat the Domers last week and lost to Pitt early in the season.
>> This game is going to be about Pitt running the ball well and >> controlling time of possession. It won't be a blowout, but only >> because the Dumbass Domers will get their trademarked Irrelevant >> Touchdown as Time Expires.
>> Pitt by 5.
> I will be at Heinz Filled tomorrow night for this game. I think Pitt > can pull it off (shit, I sure as hell *hope* they can pull it off), > but the talent level on Notre Dame is so damn high, that it's hard to > be confident.
Funny to hear you said that. During Rutgers-South Florida game last night, ESPN commentators said Notre Dame talent level is very low, those who traditionally go to Notre Dame now go to Pitt.
On Nov 12, 4:07 pm, "Kyle T. Jones" <KBf...@realdomain.net> wrote:
> UPSET ALERT - Texas Tech at Oklahoma State
> I can't go into the details or the matchups. But Tech wins this game > easily - to the tune of 21 or so points. Mark it down.
> Cheers!
If Steven Sheffield's foot was all better and he was playing, maybe. I like Taylor Potts and the other kid; but, the team seems to play flat when they're at the helm of Leach's pirate ship.
On Nov 12, 5:07 pm, "Kyle T. Jones" <KBf...@realdomain.net> wrote:
> UPSET ALERT - Tennessee at Ole Miss
> UPSET ALERT?? - Iowa at Ohio State
> UPSET ALERT - Miami at North Carolina
> UPSET ALERT - Texas Tech at Oklahoma State
I'm trying to figure out what is an upset about any of these 4 games, calling them either way?
In my mind Iowa over Ohio St would be more of an upset, but still debatable, Ole Miss has been exposed, Miami is 7-2, NC is 6-3, and neither look great, and Oklahoma St got absolutely crushed by Texas, yet again exposed, they haven't really beat anyone of note.
< <I'm trying to figure out what is an upset about any of these 4 games, <calling them either way? < <In my mind Iowa over Ohio St would be more of an upset, but still <debatable, Ole Miss has been exposed, Miami is 7-2, NC is 6-3, and
Miami is going to crush UNC. I'm tempted to go to the game.
RaginPage wrote: > On Nov 12, 5:07 pm, "Kyle T. Jones" <KBf...@realdomain.net> wrote: >> UPSET ALERT - Tennessee at Ole Miss
>> UPSET ALERT?? - Iowa at Ohio State
>> UPSET ALERT - Miami at North Carolina
>> UPSET ALERT - Texas Tech at Oklahoma State
> I'm trying to figure out what is an upset about any of these 4 games, > calling them either way?
> In my mind Iowa over Ohio St would be more of an upset, but still > debatable, Ole Miss has been exposed, Miami is 7-2, NC is 6-3, and > neither look great, and Oklahoma St got absolutely crushed by Texas, > yet again exposed, they haven't really beat anyone of note.
> Brent
I haven't looked at any lines. Ole Miss was ranked #4 in the country and is at home. I put the ?? next to the Iowa at OSU game because Iowa is ranked higher, but I wouldn't be surprised if OSU is favored - in fact, I'd be pretty surprised if they weren't. I'm fairly sure both Miami and Oklahoma State are favored by a reasonable margin - but, again, I haven't looked.
Ok, just checked - yeah, OSU is a *heavy* favorite - glad I put in the ??, I won't count that as an upset pick.
Ole Miss, Miami, and Oklahoma State are all favored, as I suspected. Not by a ton, but still favored.
I try not to pick games that are prolly gonna be blowouts, even though it would obviously improve my win/loss. I make exceptions if they're interesting for some other reason (serious BCS and conference champion implications like Iowa/OSU, or because I think a big underdog is gonna SHOCK THE WORLD).
So the lines for the games I pick are usually pretty close. All the above except Iowa/OSU are legitimate upset picks, by the line.
> RaginPage wrote: > > On Nov 12, 5:07 pm, "Kyle T. Jones" <KBf...@realdomain.net> wrote: > >> UPSET ALERT - Tennessee at Ole Miss
> >> UPSET ALERT?? - Iowa at Ohio State
> >> UPSET ALERT - Miami at North Carolina
> >> UPSET ALERT - Texas Tech at Oklahoma State
> > I'm trying to figure out what is an upset about any of these 4 games, > > calling them either way?
> > In my mind Iowa over Ohio St would be more of an upset, but still > > debatable, Ole Miss has been exposed, Miami is 7-2, NC is 6-3, and > > neither look great, and Oklahoma St got absolutely crushed by Texas, > > yet again exposed, they haven't really beat anyone of note.
> > Brent
> I haven't looked at any lines. Ole Miss was ranked #4 in the country > and is at home. I put the ?? next to the Iowa at OSU game because Iowa > is ranked higher, but I wouldn't be surprised if OSU is favored - in > fact, I'd be pretty surprised if they weren't. I'm fairly sure both > Miami and Oklahoma State are favored by a reasonable margin - but, > again, I haven't looked.
> Ok, just checked - yeah, OSU is a *heavy* favorite - glad I put in the > ??, I won't count that as an upset pick.
> Ole Miss, Miami, and Oklahoma State are all favored, as I suspected. > Not by a ton, but still favored.
> I try not to pick games that are prolly gonna be blowouts, even though > it would obviously improve my win/loss. I make exceptions if they're > interesting for some other reason (serious BCS and conference champion > implications like Iowa/OSU, or because I think a big underdog is gonna > SHOCK THE WORLD).
> So the lines for the games I pick are usually pretty close. All the > above except Iowa/OSU are legitimate upset picks, by the line.
> The robber-barons can win this game. They probably won't, but they can. > The big problem with calling this upset is that Stanford is 6-3 - but > all three losses are on the road. If they had USC at home, I think it'd > go the other way. Let's take a look at how the units match up -
> USC's defense is in the top-third of the nation, and it's balanced - > they're equally good against the run and the pass. Stanford's defense > is in the bottom-third of the nation, and it's balanced - they're > equally bad against the run and the pass.
> On the other side of things, Stanford really is impressive on offense - > top-25, statistically, averaging about 440 yards per game, and again - > balance. USC is a bit worse, with just over 400 yards per game - and, > you got it... balance. These teams that can do everything pretty well > tend to end up with winning records.
> I think Stanford would win this game if it weren't in the Colosseum, but > it is - USC wins a really fun and close game. I'm hoping they'll have > this one on one of the Fox regional channels. Don't worry, Stanford - > you have two decentish opponents at home to close out the season, and I > think you're a lock to go 7-5, maybe even 8-4 before the bowl. Go > Fighting Harbaughs. Also, the "we're the Cardinal, like the color, not > the Cardinals, like the bird" thing is the suck - just ask the > Cincinnati Red.
or perhaps The Stanford Pantone Code 200s for some of that corporate $$$.
> USC by 4.
USC defense has a fierce rush, but the secondary is in tatters. USC does not get coverage sacks. Way to move against USC is quick passes over the line of scrimmage; and Harbaugh is the guy to get it done. I am not sanguine.
> For the third straight week, we have only two ranked-vs-ranked games... > one on Friday night. I like me some Friday Night College Football. The > season as a whole has turned out to be fairly blah, but there are always > good games on, if you really like The Greatest Sport on Earth. Here are > a couple I'll be watching -
> West Virginia at Cincinnati
> I'm not sure that all the complaining about Cincinnati's "easy" schedule > is legitimate. They've already beaten #26 Oregon State in Oregon (it's > always an accomplishment to beat an Oregon school in Oregon) and #23 > South Florida. They finish the season playing two of their last three > games against teams currently ranked #27 and #12 - that's four games > against teams currently ranked in the top 27 of the AP, and three teams > currently listed in the top-25 of the BCS.
> So, not so shabby. The big news this week is that Pike returns as > starting QB for the Bearcats. For the season, Cincinnati is 3rd in the > nation in yards/game on offense (balanced with a slight lean toward > passing) and are a top-30 team in total defense (although they're a bit > suspect against the run).
> On the other side, West Virginia is a decent 7-2 team, but it lacks wins > against quality opponents. Both teams played their best common > opponent, South Florida, in Florida - Cincy won convincingly, West > Virginia lost convincingly. Statistically, West Virginia and Cincy are > close defensively, but Cincy is way ahead of them on offense. On the > other hand, West Virginia knows how to run the ball... and I think that > might keep 'em in this game.
> In the end, Cincy wins a close one by about 5-7 pts.
> Georgia Tech at Duke
> Duke's not a bad team, but their offense seems to be fading down the > stretch. The problem is that their rush defense is mediocre at best, > allowing 139.2 YPG. Georgia Tech is going to eat that up with the > top-rated run in college football, to the tune of a 21 point win.
> I don't expect Duke to win any of their last three games, to be honest - > sorry Duke - No Bowl For You.
> UPSET ALERT - Tennessee at Ole Miss
> This should be an exciting game - a team that was supposed to be decent > and isn't against a team that was supposed to be horrid... and isn't. > It's a remarkable comment on the modern flux of college football that > Ole Miss is the first and Tennessee is the second.
> Since the close game with Florida, Tennessee has looked good - they've > lost two (Auburn and Alabama) by an average of 3 points. Their wins > have been... convincing. Ole Miss lost to both those teams badly, and > is still looking for a marque win to hang their hat on this season - I'm > not counting Arkansas, although it could be all they get.
> Offensively, the teams are very similar - balanced attacks that grab up > around 400 yards per game. One stat that jumps out at me is that > Tennessee is willing to take more chances (they've gone for 4th down 12 > times this season) and they're much better at converting those crucial > game-changers.
> Defensively the teams are also similar - again, one thing that jumps out > at me is that Tennessee has been more successful at stopping the run.
> Look, this is a toss-up in a lot of ways, and Mississippi is at home - > but I'm gonna bet on Tennessee's momentum and assume the three Tennessee > players who were recently arrested for armed robbery weren't starters.
> Tennessee actually makes a game-ending field goal this week and takes it > by 2.
> Florida at South Carolina
> I know what you're thinking - here he goes again with the wishful > thinking. And yes - picking upsets against Florida hasn't gone well for > me (although I was pretty damn close with Arkansas, an upset I picked > weeks in advance and harped on throughout).
> So, can South Carolina at home beat Florida? Sure... if that 2007 > Stanford team could beat USC, anything is possible.
> But I doubt it, and here's why - Florida has the best defense in the > SEC, and South Carolina sucks at putting points on the board - although > they're statistically middle-of-the-SEC-pack in total yards generated, > they're dead last in points scored. Teams that pull off upsets finish > drives, and S. Carolina finds that near unpossible...
> Of course, South Carolina *is* undefeated at home. Ha, just had to > leave that door open a bit. Florida wins big, impresses the easily > impressionable. (call it 28 pts).
> Idaho at Boise State
> Everyone is hoping Idaho can give Boise a run. They can't - and > especially as their starting QB is out for the game. Having the best > season in years is a relative thing, and for Idaho it basically means > hitting bowl eligibility. Both teams are good on offense - > statistically in the top-25 in the country. However, only one of them > plays defense.
> Idaho has lost every non-puff they've played this year, and things > aren't going to change Saturday. Besides, Boise's field camouflaging > technique gives them a decided schematic advantage - maybe the coach of > the Dumbass Domers should give 'em a call...
> Boise puts this one away in the third quarter and wins going away.
> UPSET ALERT?? - Iowa at Ohio State
> Winner goes to the Rose Bowl. Iowa lost Stanzi - enough said... > although I'm always wondering - how can a guy who throws an interception > every time I flip to the game be *this* important to a team? I don't > know, but apparently he can. Iowa plays good defense - but Ohio State > is better. Ohio State's offense is nothing to write home about - but it > was better than Iowa's, even *before* they lost Stanzi. And they're > playing in the Stadium They Couldn't Complete.
> Hey, I'm not shocking anyone when I point out that all indications are > the Big Ten is only strong this year if strength is a direct measure of > parity within the conference. There have certainly been a bunch of > exciting games this year, but... well, it's sickening to me that the > horrible wannabes from down south are gonna win their 72nd straight > conference title in spite of all that parity and an offense that just > can't figure itself out. But that's how things are shaping up. Now go > out and prove me wrong, Iowa.
> Ohio State by 7.
> UPSET ALERT - Miami at North Carolina
> Miami's had a pretty good season so far - an overtime loss to Clemson > and an @#$-whoopin' by Virginia Tech are the only flaws. At first > glance, this one seems like a no-brainer. But wait a second - North > Carolina has been having a pretty good season themselves, and two weeks > ago they beat the same Virginia Tech team that whooped Miami like the > hypothetical red-headed stepchild.
> God I hate gingers ($1 to Cartman).
> This should be an interesting game because we're looking at a fairly > high-power Miami offense (heavily favors the pass) against the 5th best > defense in the country - yep, North Carolina has the 5th best defense in > the country.
> That's worth repeating again. North Carolina has the 5th best defense > in the country. In football.
> In fact, if you look only at BCS schools, North Carolina is the 2nd best > defense (overall and pass defense) nationwide. #1 is Florida.
> This is a tough one to call - Miami has looked really good since the > loss to VT, but North Carolina has home field advantage and is coming > off two good wins, including beating VT. Close calls go to the underdog > - I'm assuming that's North Carolina, although I haven't looked. This > game comes down to the mismatches - Miami is pass-heavy, North Carolina > is outstanding against the pass. North Carolina's only decent offensive > stat is rush yardage, and Miami is suspect against the run.
> North Carolina scores half their points on defense, wins 24-21.
> Stanford at USC
> The robber-barons can win this game. They probably won't, but they can. > The big problem with calling this upset is that Stanford is 6-3 - but > all three losses are on the road. If they had USC at home, I think it'd > go the other way. Let's take a look at how the units match up -
> USC's defense is in the top-third of the nation, and it's balanced - > they're equally good against the run and the pass. Stanford's defense > is in the bottom-third of the nation, and it's balanced - they're > equally bad against the run and the pass.
> On the other side of things, Stanford really is impressive on offense - > top-25, statistically, averaging about 440 yards per game, and again - > balance. USC is a bit worse, with just over 400 yards per game - and, > you got it... balance. These teams that can do everything pretty well > tend to end up with winning records.
> I think Stanford would win this game if it weren't in the Colosseum, but > it is - USC wins a really fun and close game. I'm hoping they'll have > this one on one of the Fox regional channels. Don't worry, Stanford - > you have two decentish opponents at home to close out the season, and I > think you're a lock to go 7-5, maybe even 8-4 before the bowl. Go > Fighting Harbaughs. Also, the "we're the Cardinal, like the color, not > the Cardinals, like the bird" thing is the suck - just ask the > Cincinnati Red.
> USC by 4.
> Notre Dame at Pitt
> Notre Dame is a 3-loss team that's gotten worse throughout the season. > Pitt is a 1-loss team that's gotten better week to week. Navy beat the > Domers last week and lost to Pitt early in the season.
> This game is going to be about Pitt running the ball well and > controlling time of possession. It won't be a blowout, but only because > the Dumbass Domers will get their trademarked Irrelevant Touchdown as > Time Expires.
> Pitt by 5.
> UPSET ALERT - Texas Tech at Oklahoma State
> I can't go into the details or the matchups. But Tech wins this game > easily - to
Kyle T. Jones wrote: > For the third straight week, we have only two ranked-vs-ranked games... > one on Friday night. I like me some Friday Night College Football. The > season as a whole has turned out to be fairly blah, but there are always > good games on, if you really like The Greatest Sport on Earth. Here are > a couple I'll be watching -
> West Virginia at Cincinnati
> I'm not sure that all the complaining about Cincinnati's "easy" schedule > is legitimate. They've already beaten #26 Oregon State in Oregon (it's > always an accomplishment to beat an Oregon school in Oregon) and #23 > South Florida. They finish the season playing two of their last three > games against teams currently ranked #27 and #12 - that's four games > against teams currently ranked in the top 27 of the AP, and three teams > currently listed in the top-25 of the BCS.
> So, not so shabby. The big news this week is that Pike returns as > starting QB for the Bearcats. For the season, Cincinnati is 3rd in the > nation in yards/game on offense (balanced with a slight lean toward > passing) and are a top-30 team in total defense (although they're a bit > suspect against the run).
> On the other side, West Virginia is a decent 7-2 team, but it lacks wins > against quality opponents. Both teams played their best common > opponent, South Florida, in Florida - Cincy won convincingly, West > Virginia lost convincingly. Statistically, West Virginia and Cincy are > close defensively, but Cincy is way ahead of them on offense. On the > other hand, West Virginia knows how to run the ball... and I think that > might keep 'em in this game.
> In the end, Cincy wins a close one by about 5-7 pts.
Rite.
> Georgia Tech at Duke
> Duke's not a bad team, but their offense seems to be fading down the > stretch. The problem is that their rush defense is mediocre at best, > allowing 139.2 YPG. Georgia Tech is going to eat that up with the > top-rated run in college football, to the tune of a 21 point win.
> I don't expect Duke to win any of their last three games, to be honest - > sorry Duke - No Bowl For You.
Tedward got his panties wadded because I thought it'd be 21 - he was right. Duke lost by 39 - that potent offense managed 10 points and less than 300 yards.
> This should be an exciting game - a team that was supposed to be decent > and isn't against a team that was supposed to be horrid... and isn't. > It's a remarkable comment on the modern flux of college football that > Ole Miss is the first and Tennessee is the second.
> Since the close game with Florida, Tennessee has looked good - they've > lost two (Auburn and Alabama) by an average of 3 points. Their wins > have been... convincing. Ole Miss lost to both those teams badly, and > is still looking for a marque win to hang their hat on this season - I'm > not counting Arkansas, although it could be all they get.
> Offensively, the teams are very similar - balanced attacks that grab up > around 400 yards per game. One stat that jumps out at me is that > Tennessee is willing to take more chances (they've gone for 4th down 12 > times this season) and they're much better at converting those crucial > game-changers.
> Defensively the teams are also similar - again, one thing that jumps out > at me is that Tennessee has been more successful at stopping the run.
> Look, this is a toss-up in a lot of ways, and Mississippi is at home - > but I'm gonna bet on Tennessee's momentum and assume the three Tennessee > players who were recently arrested for armed robbery weren't starters.
> Tennessee actually makes a game-ending field goal this week and takes it > by 2.
> I know what you're thinking - here he goes again with the wishful > thinking. And yes - picking upsets against Florida hasn't gone well for > me (although I was pretty damn close with Arkansas, an upset I picked > weeks in advance and harped on throughout).
> So, can South Carolina at home beat Florida? Sure... if that 2007 > Stanford team could beat USC, anything is possible.
> But I doubt it, and here's why - Florida has the best defense in the > SEC, and South Carolina sucks at putting points on the board - although > they're statistically middle-of-the-SEC-pack in total yards generated, > they're dead last in points scored. Teams that pull off upsets finish > drives, and S. Carolina finds that near unpossible...
> Of course, South Carolina *is* undefeated at home. Ha, just had to > leave that door open a bit. Florida wins big, impresses the easily > impressionable. (call it 28 pts).
Rite on Florida, but once again... well, let's just say nobody is getting rich taking Florida and giving the points this year. Truly an uninspiring offense.
> Everyone is hoping Idaho can give Boise a run. They can't - and > especially as their starting QB is out for the game. Having the best > season in years is a relative thing, and for Idaho it basically means > hitting bowl eligibility. Both teams are good on offense - > statistically in the top-25 in the country. However, only one of them > plays defense.
> Idaho has lost every non-puff they've played this year, and things > aren't going to change Saturday. Besides, Boise's field camouflaging > technique gives them a decided schematic advantage - maybe the coach of > the Dumbass Domers should give 'em a call...
> Boise puts this one away in the third quarter and wins going away.
Rite. Boise is really trying to impress the voters, eh...
> Winner goes to the Rose Bowl. Iowa lost Stanzi - enough said... > although I'm always wondering - how can a guy who throws an interception > every time I flip to the game be *this* important to a team? I don't > know, but apparently he can. Iowa plays good defense - but Ohio State > is better. Ohio State's offense is nothing to write home about - but it > was better than Iowa's, even *before* they lost Stanzi. And they're > playing in the Stadium They Couldn't Complete.
> Hey, I'm not shocking anyone when I point out that all indications are > the Big Ten is only strong this year if strength is a direct measure of > parity within the conference. There have certainly been a bunch of > exciting games this year, but... well, it's sickening to me that the > horrible wannabes from down south are gonna win their 72nd straight > conference title in spite of all that parity and an offense that just > can't figure itself out. But that's how things are shaping up. Now go > out and prove me wrong, Iowa.
> Ohio State by 7.
Wasn't an upset, was closer than I thought it'd be - Iowa played a hell of a game, but I just COULD NOT BELIEVE they ran the last minute of regulation off. Just, well, stupid. IMO.
> Miami's had a pretty good season so far - an overtime loss to Clemson > and an @#$-whoopin' by Virginia Tech are the only flaws. At first > glance, this one seems like a no-brainer. But wait a second - North > Carolina has been having a pretty good season themselves, and two weeks > ago they beat the same Virginia Tech team that whooped Miami like the > hypothetical red-headed stepchild.
> God I hate gingers ($1 to Cartman).
> This should be an interesting game because we're looking at a fairly > high-power Miami offense (heavily favors the pass) against the 5th best > defense in the country - yep, North Carolina has the 5th best defense in > the country.
> That's worth repeating again. North Carolina has the 5th best defense > in the country. In football.
> In fact, if you look only at BCS schools, North Carolina is the 2nd best > defense (overall and pass defense) nationwide. #1 is Florida.
> This is a tough one to call - Miami has looked really good since the > loss to VT, but North Carolina has home field advantage and is coming > off two good wins, including beating VT. Close calls go to the underdog > - I'm assuming that's North Carolina, although I haven't looked. This > game comes down to the mismatches - Miami is pass-heavy, North Carolina > is outstanding against the pass. North Carolina's only decent offensive > stat is rush yardage, and Miami is suspect against the run.
> North Carolina scores half their points on defense, wins 24-21.
Rite. A good win by North Carolina, they're legit this year.
> The robber-barons can win this game. They probably won't, but they can. > The big problem with calling this upset is that Stanford is 6-3 - but > all three losses are on the road. If they had USC at home, I think it'd > go the other way. Let's take a look at how the units match up -
> USC's defense is in the top-third of the nation, and it's balanced - > they're equally good against the run and the pass. Stanford's defense > is in the bottom-third of the nation, and it's balanced - they're > equally bad against the run and the pass.
> On the other side of things, Stanford really is impressive on offense - > top-25, statistically, averaging about 440 yards per game, and again - > balance. USC is a bit worse, with just over 400 yards per game - and, > you got it... balance. These teams that can do everything pretty well > tend to end up with winning records.
> I think Stanford would win this game if it weren't in the Colosseum, but > it is - USC wins a really fun and close game. I'm hoping they'll have > this one on one of the Fox regional channels. Don't worry, Stanford - > you have two decentish opponents at home to close out the season, and I > think you're a lock to go 7-5, maybe even 8-4 before
|
