On Fri, 6 Nov 2009 17:46:20 -0800 (PST), VoiceOfReason
<papa_...@cybertown.com> wrote: > On Nov 6, 7:03 pm, Iain <iain_inks...@hotmail.com> wrote: > > Low birth rate is bad? > Actually, *too* low a birthrate has a very bad effect on the economy. > Imagine fewer and fewer young people paying more and more taxes to > support the elderly.
Cancer cells have the same economic system.
-- http://desertphile.org Desertphile's Desert Soliloquy. WARNING: view with plenty of water "Why aren't resurrections from the dead noteworthy?" -- Jim Rutz
<jharsh...@pacbell.net> wrote: > VoiceOfReason wrote: > > On Nov 6, 10:36 pm, John Harshman <jharsh...@pacbell.net> wrote: > >> VoiceOfReason wrote: > >>> On Nov 6, 7:03 pm, Iain <iain_inks...@hotmail.com> wrote: > >>>> Low birth rate is bad? > >>> Actually, *too* low a birthrate has a very bad effect on the economy. > >>> Imagine fewer and fewer young people paying more and more taxes to > >>> support the elderly. > >> What's the alternative, and is it better? > > Ah, found a couple articles about Japan's example.
> > "Unless women here start having more babies, the population in Japan > > is expected to shrink more than 20% by the middle of this century. > > Nearly half would be elderly, placing impossible burdens on the health > > and pension systems. "
There are many answers to the question, none of which explain how to solve the problem ethically and morally and still allow the industrailized countries to retain a high standard of living for a large portion of their citizens. Enslaving young people would work for the short-term.
There is no good solution; there is only disaster and horror. Exterminating the elderly (aka "Logan's Run") is the only thing that will work, which is evil.
Some places in the USA, such as the remote areas of the Navajo Reservation, have elderly freezing to death because there are no young people in the area to gather firewood from the areas the Federal Government allows them to get wood, and no young people to cut, haul, split, and stack it for the elderly--- there are a few volunteers doing this on Black Mesa, but far too damn few.
-- http://desertphile.org Desertphile's Desert Soliloquy. WARNING: view with plenty of water "Why aren't resurrections from the dead noteworthy?" -- Jim Rutz
Bob Casanova <nos...@buzz.off> wrote: > On Sat, 7 Nov 2009 12:12:02 +0100, the following appeared in > talk.origins, posted by nos...@de-ster.demon.nl (J. J. > Lodder):
> >For a rabbi, yes. > >Jews will become a minority in Isreal > >in a generation or so,
> Cite?
My own estimate. Population growth for the Jews is much smaller, Jewish immigration is down to a trickle compared to what it was, and Jewish emigration can be expected to increase. (get out while the going is good)
Nick Keighley <nick_keighley_nos...@hotmail.com> wrote: > On 7 Nov, 17:08, Burkhard <b.scha...@ed.ac.uk> wrote: > > On 7 Nov, 16:38, Louann Miller <louan...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> > > nos...@de-ster.demon.nl (J. J. Lodder) wrote innews:1j8szup.pqy1c09l76hbN@ de-ster.xs4all.nl:
> > > >> Low birth rate is bad?
> > > > For a rabbi, yes. > > > > Jews will become a minority in Isreal > > > > in a generation or so,
> > > In view of the ... eccentricity of some of your past pronouncements, can > > > anyone else confirm his figures?
> > It is a claim made about every ten years, with changing "dates by". > > First made in the 1950s by Shoham Melamad, repeated in the Koenig > > Memorandum 1976 (should have happened by 1990, I think), Benjamin > > Netanyahu in 2003 and very recently by the Israeli US ambassadorhttp://www.c
> > It is never quite clear what these figures are based on, the only > > serious study I know says it is all nonsense: > > Zimmerman, Roberta Seid and Michael L. Wise: Forecast for Israel and > > West Bank 2025. Sixth Herzliya Conference, January 23, 2006.
> > This type of argument is of course made in all sorts of contexts. The > > UK became mainly Catholic in 1950, 1970, 1985 ("every sperm is holy" > > is based on this), Bhutan is now Nepalesi, Estonia Russian etc etc. > > What these predictions have in common is an eery similarity with end > > of the world predictions that simply get a new deadline when the old > > one has past.
> France will to Muslim in 20 years time. (or was it 10?)
> This assumed emigration from north african rose substantially and > their birth rate rose to match the highest in Africa (the North > African countries concerned do not have a particularly high birth > rates).
A relatively high birth rate is typical for repressed minorities.
> Immigrant poulation's birthrates typically converge with that > of the host country when a generation or so.
Well yes, if there is good integration. That doesn't seem likely to happen in Israel,
Jason Spaceman wrote: > From the article: > -------------------------------------------------------------------- > Europe is facing a population crisis because of attacks on religion by > secular writers, Britain's chief rabbi has said.
> Lord Sacks blamed Europe's falling birth rate on a culture of > "consumerism and instant gratification".
> He said the continent was "dying" and accused its citizens of not > being prepared for parenthood's "sacrifices".
The conclusion to be drawn should rather be that religion is the cause of excessive population growth with attendant global warming, famine and many other problems.
> He made his comments in a lecture for Christian think tank Theos in > central London on Wednesday.
> The 61-year-old, who took his seat in the Lords last week, said: > "Wherever you turn today - Jewish, Christian or Muslim - the more > religious the community, the larger on average are their families.
> "The major assault on religion today comes from the neo-Darwinians." > ----------------------------------------------------------------------
>> >For a rabbi, yes. >> >Jews will become a minority in Isreal >> >in a generation or so,
>> Cite?
>My own estimate.
OK.
>Population growth for the Jews is much smaller, >Jewish immigration is down to a trickle >compared to what it was, >and Jewish emigration can be expected to increase. >(get out while the going is good)
>We'll see where it ends,
Like everything else, somewhere unexpected.
--
Bob C.
"Evidence confirming an observation is evidence that the observation is wrong." - McNameless
> > > For a rabbi, yes. > > > Jews will become a minority in Isreal > > > in a generation or so,
> > In view of the ... eccentricity of some of your past pronouncements, can > > anyone else confirm his figures?
> It is a claim made about every ten years, with changing "dates by". > First made in the 1950s by Shoham Melamad, repeated in the Koenig > Memorandum 1976 (should have happened by 1990, I think), Benjamin > Netanyahu in 2003 and very recently by the Israeli US ambassadorhttp://www.commentarymagazine.com/viewarticle.cfm/seven-existential-t...
> It is never quite clear what these figures are based on, the only > serious study I know says it is all nonsense: > Zimmerman, Roberta Seid and Michael L. Wise: Forecast for Israel and > West Bank 2025. Sixth Herzliya Conference, January 23, 2006.
> This type of argument is of course made in all sorts of contexts. The > UK became mainly Catholic in 1950, 1970, 1985 ("every sperm is holy" > is based on this), Bhutan is now Nepalesi, Estonia Russian etc etc. > What these predictions have in common is an eery similarity with end > of the world predictions that simply get a new deadline when the old > one has past.
For Israel it is true for a certain definition of Israel (i.e., borders) and assuming that Palestinian population growth rates remain more-or-less what they are. This latter assumption most such hysterical pseudo-demographia hang upon. That assumption almost never proves truth, and for reasons far from mysterious to eyes whose study of demographics is unquivered by hysteria. I'm willing to predict that Palestinian birth rates will decline once the Palestinian standard of living begins a prolonged expansion.
Hum-dee-dum. Well, there you have it: two-states with realistic borders and stable economic growth. Solved that problem. My work here is done. Next question.
Mitchell Coffey ___________________________________________________________ BELZANOR. A marvellous man, this Caesar! Will he come soon, think you?
APOLLODORUS. He was settling the Jewish question when I left.
- George Bernard Shaw, Caesar and Cleopatra, 1899.
On Nov 6, 9:27 pm, John Harshman <jharsh...@pacbell.net> wrote:
> VoiceOfReason wrote: > > On Nov 6, 10:36 pm, John Harshman <jharsh...@pacbell.net> wrote: > >> VoiceOfReason wrote: > >>> On Nov 6, 7:03 pm, Iain <iain_inks...@hotmail.com> wrote: > >>>> Low birth rate is bad? > >>> Actually, *too* low a birthrate has a very bad effect on the economy. > >>> Imagine fewer and fewer young people paying more and more taxes to > >>> support the elderly. > >> What's the alternative, and is it better?
As always, the tendency is to complain about the cost of X, without considering the cost of not-X.
I'd rather tighten the belt now than grow old in chaos, violence, and despair.
> > Ah, found a couple articles about Japan's example.
> > "Unless women here start having more babies, the population in Japan > > is expected to shrink more than 20% by the middle of this century. > > Nearly half would be elderly, placing impossible burdens on the health > > and pension systems. "
A reasonably large financial adjustment can be had by raising the retirement age a year or three. As a soon-to-retire oldish person, I'd rather starve than have my grandchildren starve. And I'd much rather retire at 70 instead of 66 if it means neither I nor the kids starve.
We have probably exceeded the long-term carrying capacity of the planet, anyway. If we don't take disciplined steps to control the population, they will be taken for us, and it won't be pretty.
While I have no objection to feeding hungry children per se, are we feeding them now just so they can watch their grandchildren starve in 40 years? We *must control population growth and climate change.
Kermit, who can always punch a few extra holes in his belt, as needed
Kermit <unrestrained_h...@hotmail.com> wrote: > On Nov 6, 9:27 pm, John Harshman <jharsh...@pacbell.net> wrote: > > VoiceOfReason wrote: > > > On Nov 6, 10:36 pm, John Harshman <jharsh...@pacbell.net> wrote: > > >> VoiceOfReason wrote: > > >>> On Nov 6, 7:03 pm, Iain <iain_inks...@hotmail.com> wrote: > > >>>> Low birth rate is bad? > > >>> Actually, *too* low a birthrate has a very bad effect on the economy. > > >>> Imagine fewer and fewer young people paying more and more taxes to > > >>> support the elderly. > > >> What's the alternative, and is it better?
> As always, the tendency is to complain about the cost of X, without > considering the cost of not-X.
> I'd rather tighten the belt now than grow old in chaos, violence, and > despair.
> > > Ah, found a couple articles about Japan's example.
> > > "Unless women here start having more babies, the population in Japan > > > is expected to shrink more than 20% by the middle of this century. > > > Nearly half would be elderly, placing impossible burdens on the health > > > and pension systems. "
> A reasonably large financial adjustment can be had by raising the > retirement age a year or three. As a soon-to-retire oldish person, I'd > rather starve than have my grandchildren starve. And I'd much rather > retire at 70 instead of 66 if it means neither I nor the kids starve.
> We have probably exceeded the long-term carrying capacity of the > planet, anyway. If we don't take disciplined steps to control the > population, they will be taken for us, and it won't be pretty.
> While I have no objection to feeding hungry children per se, are we > feeding them now just so they can watch their grandchildren starve in > 40 years? We *must control population growth and climate change.
> Kermit, > who can always punch a few extra holes in his belt, as needed
Lots of people are living on Social Security who were retired against their will. And if you noticed there seem to be no (or really very little) hiring going on, even for the very skilled. I really expectg this to continue for the next 20-30 years at least while the economy adjusts to current conditions.
-- A computer without Microsoft is like a chocolate cake without mustard.
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